Tongkun (601233): 3Q19 net profit attributable to mother increased steadily

Investment points: 3Q19 company’s net profit attributable to its mother increased steadily from the previous month.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 372.

40 trillion, +20 for ten years.

66%; net profit attributable to mother 24.

510,000 yuan, at least -2.

10%.

Among them, the net profit attributable to the mother was 10 in 3Q19.

600,000 yuan, at least -7.

19%, +22.

01%.

The profit of PTA 3Q19 dropped at a high level, and the spread of polyester filaments expanded.

In the third quarter of 19, due to the decline in the average price of crude oil, the downstream filament production and sales rate declined, and the PTA price and the price gap fluctuated, with an average price of 5,526 yuan / ton, each time -26.

96% compared to -10.

09%; the average spread is 1079 yuan / ton, although it is still at a better level in a single quarter since 2012, but due to the high base, the spread is -5.

84%, compared with -17.

41%.

In March 19, the average price of polyester POY was 7,947 yuan / ton, up to -26.

68%, -3.

27%; average price difference is 1442 yuan / ton, -5 years.

37%, +15.

13%.

The output of filaments increased steadily, and sales in 3Q19 improved month-on-month.

In 2019, the company’s filament production capacity expanded steadily, and its output increased steadily.

In the third quarter of 19, the company’s filament (POY / FDY / DTY) output was above 141, +8 each time.

24%, +4 from the previous quarter.

18%; filament sales are higher than 135, +18 per year.

72% MoM.

93%, the production and sales rate fell slightly.

Filament production capacity expanded 杭州桑拿 steadily.

As of the first half of 2019, the company’s polymerization capacity was about 520 tons, and polyester filament capacity was about 570 tons.

In the third quarter of 19, the company’s 120 initial polyester units were driven by feedstock (including 30 stationary Hengbang Phase IV projects, 30 stationary Heng Optimized slimming POY projects, 30 stationary Heng Optimized slimming POY technical transformation projects, and 30 stationaryHengteng Phase IV Project)); constant, Hengchao 50 can introduce intelligent ultra-simulation fiber projects to start construction.

It is planned to expand the production capacity of PTA-polyester filament in Rudong.

The company plans to invest about 16 billion US dollars in Jiangsu Rudong Yangkou Port, with an annual output of 2 * 250 for PTA, 90 for FDY, and 150 for POY projects.

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The project strives to complete the approval process by the end of November 2019, and it will be constructed in two phases from December 2019 to December 2025.

Share in Zhejiang Petrochemical 20% equity, and improve the layout of the industrial chain.

Zhejiang Petrochemical’s initial / annual refining and chemical integration project has a total investment of 1,730.

US $ 8.5 billion, with a total scale of 4,000 tons / year of refining, 800 tons / year of para-xylene, and 280 tons / year of ethylene, will be carried out in two phases.

In May 2019, the first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical entered the trial production stage.After the project is put into production, the company’s industrial chain will be extended to the upstream PX. We believe that the supply of raw materials can be guaranteed, and the company is also expected to obtain a certain investment income.

Profit forecast and investment grade: We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 29 trillion, 30 trillion and 31 trillion, respectively, and the EPS will be 1.

59, 1.

64, 1.

68 yuan, BPS is 10 in 2019.

35 yuan.

With reference to the assessment level of comparable companies, it will be given 8-10 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 12.

72-15.

90 yuan (1 PB in 2019.

2-1.

5 times), maintain the “previous market” rating.

Risk warning: the price of products fluctuates greatly; the increase in production capacity of polyester filament is less than expected; the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Project is less than expected.